IPCC AR6: 5 questions to understand Chapter 9

If we want to understand the impact of climate change, we first have to understand how the characteristics of these models conclude the negative environmental effects of climate change. Here are 5 questions to understand how.

IPCC Report 🦥

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4 min

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July 1, 2022

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Table of contents

📊 Why do we use climate models?

Scientists use climate models to research the future projects of climate change and predict what can be done in the future to prevent further environmental damage. 

Climate models are imperative in order to adjust current climate change mitigation strategies to the most effective and appropriate preventative plan. These climate change prevention strategies should be adjusted according to the area and current projection of each individual climate model.  

Previous climate models are also measured and evaluated in order to improve upon previous strategies put in place to prevent further pollution. In order to successfully refine one’s climate change mitigation strategy – one must be well informed on the quantitative and qualitative data that is provided, given that many times a climate model can only provide an observational estimate. Therefore, intellectual inferences must be made in order to create the best possible, next climate model. 

Whenever an hypothesis isn’t viable or conducive to create a climate model change, authorities should refer to comparing and contrasting between the previous and current models in order to decipher or conclude the best possible model given any numerical data that might be missing from the current climate model.

🌧️ What models need to be evaluated?

A wide variety of climate models need to be evaluated in order to address each component necessary to improve the current climate model and global warming predicament. These climate models can measure energy consumption by observing patterns of the Earth’s behavior that will impact the weather. ☂️

These climate models use paleoclimate techniques, energy balancing mechanisms, and compare previous climate models in order to address the current climate issue and predict future climate predicaments. 

However, the technical cost required for all the different models to operate simultaneously and successfully – a more time consuming process is required for ultimate efficacy. 

For instance, discerning parameter sensitivity or simulations regarding climate change takes over a thousand years to accurately accumulate useful information. 

Specific climate models include the Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs), Earth System’ Models (ESMs), Regional Climate Models (RCMs), and Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs). Each of these models need to be adequately utilized each quarter of the year in order to yield decedal reports, which are ultimately more useful than carbon emission reports for each century. 

Honestly, we don’t have a hundred years to instill corrective action to avoid further climate change or environmental damage to the planet. 😬

However, if these climate models are used expansively, and run every decade instead of every one hundred years – there may be more substantial hope for a better future and life on Earth. 🌎

All of the models need to be equally evaluated in order for the overall climate model to yield the appropriate data to provoke the need to employ new environmental measures to reduce carbon footprint and climate change. 🌡️

Without the evaluation of all the models, the proper action necessary to instill novel action to alleviate future environmental damage will not be as efficacious as it could be with all the data provided from each individual model. 

🔨 How are climate models developed?

Climate models are developed after deciphering the numerical data of previous climate models. It is often compulsory to create the new climate models with the intent to improve upon the previous climate model and is contingent on the most recent data.

Developing new climate models isn’t possible without consistently referring to the previous climate model. 

However, climate models aren’t designed solely based on previous data from older climate models – it is also necessary to make an educated guess to develop a conceptual model that could aid the particular environmental sector in question.

In order to assemble an effective climate model, it is necessary to observe both quantitative data as well as implicit data to develop a model. 

For example, a climate model specializing in the atmosphere can be quantified through measuring the temperature of the ground, ocean, or agricultural components, and then improved through reasonable inference – such as inferring future industrialization projects that could impact the atmospheric temperature as well.

Finally, the climate model will be evaluated as a whole for efficacy after taking both numerical data and hypothetical, but justifiable – factors into consideration.

This process, where climate models often need to be adjusted – is called model tuning. 

🤓Have climate models improved since their initial release?

Recent data has shown that climate models have since increased their accuracy and ability to calculate various climate variables. Specific improvements include measuring surface temperature, precipitation, and air temperature. 🌡️

Also, new Earth System’ Models (ESMs) can now accurately predict the annual cycle of carbon dioxide emissions in the atmosphere. Also, climate models can now offer improved information that allows for a better understanding of extreme weather caused by climate change. ☀️

⬆️ How can we further improve climate models?

Can climate models get even better?

As with anything in life, there is always room for improvement – even with climate models as technology continues to expand at a never-before-seen rapid pace. 

Also, climate models could strive to reduce any repetitive performance metrics so that future climate models can report more cohesively and elicit a more comprehensive plan to prevent further climate change. 

Many climate models have trouble reading the average temperature of the Atlantic Ocean, precipitation cycles, and cloud patterns. Sometimes, the results from climate models align with weather forecasts – but the data that isn’t numerical isn’t substantial enough to deem it effective or useful to alter current habits that produce a large carbon footprint. 👣

In short, climate models could strive to increase their numerical accuracy so that the implicit data provided isn’t the primary factor that authorities use to justify current or future preventative climate change actions. 

🔍 What do you need to remember?

Climate models are evaluated by recognizing the flaws of each particular model’s weaknesses. This encourages those who develop future climate models to improve accuracy, but it is important to note that climate models have proven themselves to be quite successful in measuring previous factors of climate change. 

Any errors or pre-dispositions calculated by a climate model are often insignificant in comparison to the overall picture the climate model provides. Climate models ultimately provide an accurate representation of current discrepancies in our climate, and the climate changes yet to come. 

🍀 What about Greenly?

Your company/organization can also do its part. Call our experts and ask for your carbon assessment!

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